Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Juan Soto

NYM · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs MIASandy Alcantara
Sample4183.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 12.3
Model 19.3% Market 24.1% Gap -4.8pp
BetMGM 315 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 79.3% Market 80.4% Gap +16.4pp
BetMGM -410 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.8% Market -- Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.6%
97
Exit velocity91.9
93
Hard-hit%48.6%
90
xBA0.351
82
xSLG0.689
94
xwOBA0.416
100
BB%16.8%
99
Bat speed69.8
52
K%13.3%
94 +18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.8 · LF
15
Arm Strength87.7 · LF
11
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
12
Range Runs-1.4 · LF
30
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · LF
24
SB Success Rate66.7% · LF
20
Sprint Speed25.8 · LF
14
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.0%
89
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.3%
60
Correct Decisions69.8%
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
90

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.374 to 0.470
RegressionPositive · 0.005
Opposing pitcherSandy Alcantara
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)