Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-08-18 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-18

Bo Bichette

NYM · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs SDRobbie Ray
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 19 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.1
F 13.4
V 11.9
Model 19.5% Market 12.2% Gap +6.9pp
DraftKings 695 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 83.8% Market 84.7% Gap +15.5pp
BetMGM -555 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 28.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 28.4% Market -- Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
43 -15 vs proj
Exit velocity89.7
72
Hard-hit%41.5%
63 -16 vs proj
xBA0.348
79
xSLG0.514
54
xwOBA0.324
72
BB%7.0%
33
Bat speed68.2
31
K%17.6%
78
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 3B
52
Arm Strength88.6 · 3B
60
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
84
Range Runs1.0 · 3B
65
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.6 · 3B
14
Sprint Speed26.1 · 3B
19
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.4%
15
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6%
45
Correct Decisions62.6%
19
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
16

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.312 to 0.384
RegressionNegative · -0.011
Opposing pitcherRobbie Ray
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)