Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-31 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-31

Jj Bleday

CIN · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs PITPaul Skenes
Sample1624.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.1
F 9.4
V 13.0
Model 16.6% Market 12.8% Gap +3.3pp
FanDuel 650 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 53.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.6% Market 64.9% Gap +11.4pp
BetMGM -185 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 11.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 11.3% Market -- Gap +11.5pp
FanDuel 410 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.4%
83 +32 vs proj
Exit velocity88.9
60
Hard-hit%42.7%
68 +24 vs proj
xBA0.344
76
xSLG0.619
83
xwOBA0.367
94 +55 vs proj
BB%13.3%
90 +20 vs proj
Bat speed71.7
77
K%20.4%
62 +24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · LF
38
Arm Strength98.5 · LF
90
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
11
Range Runs-1.2 · LF
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.5 · LF
53
SB Success Rate75.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions71.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.351 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.256
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.014
Opposing pitcherPaul Skenes
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)