Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-07-31 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
79
Matched
300
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-07-31 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 6
 15.5%Palantir 11.0%market +4.5pp
P 15.5
F 14.0
V 10.1
5.3pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
02
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3
 13.9%Palantir 11.1%market +2.8pp
P 13.9
F 10.6
V 8.4
5.5pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
03
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1
 14.0%Palantir 11.2%market +2.8pp
P 14.0
F 14.0
V 10.4
3.6pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
04
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
 12.1%Palantir 9.3%market +2.7pp
P 12.1
F 13.0
V 9.5
3.6pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
05
José Caballero NYY
IN
NYY vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 10.1%Palantir 7.9%market +2.3pp
P 10.1
F 10.8
V 11.0
0.9pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books
06
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1
 15.8%Palantir 13.9%market +1.8pp
P 15.8
F 14.0
V 11.8
4.0pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
07
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 3
 14.5%Palantir 12.7%market +1.8pp
P 14.5
F 14.7
V 12.7
2.1pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
08
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1
 16.1%Palantir 14.4%market +1.7pp
P 16.1
F 14.0
V 13.8
2.3pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
09
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
 13.2%Palantir 11.7%market +1.4pp
P 13.2
F 13.7
V 10.4
3.4pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
10
Willi Castro COL
Lineup pending
COL vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
 10.9%Palantir 9.8%market +1.1pp
P 10.9
F 12.3
V 9.7
2.7pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
11
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
IN
PIT vs CINHunter Greene · slot 3
 13.8%Palantir 13.0%market +0.8pp
P 13.8
F 14.0
V 16.2
2.4pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
12
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
 13.7%Palantir 13.0%market +0.7pp
P 13.7
F 14.0
V 9.8
4.2pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
13
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs BALBrandon Young · slot 6
 11.6%Palantir 11.0%market +0.6pp
P 11.6
F 13.7
V 9.9
3.8pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
14
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 4
 13.0%Palantir 12.4%market +0.6pp
P 13.0
F 13.0
V 11.0
2.1pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
15
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 3
 16.2%Palantir 15.6%market +0.6pp
P 16.2
F 14.0
V 14.5
2.2pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
16
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs NYMKodai Senga · slot 2
 10.7%Palantir 10.1%market +0.6pp
P 10.7
F 12.3
V 14.3
3.6pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
17
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3
 15.6%Palantir 15.0%market +0.5pp
P 15.6
F 14.0
V 15.0
1.5pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
18
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 2
 14.7%Palantir 14.2%market +0.4pp
P 14.7
F 14.7
V 14.8
0.2pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
19
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs BALBrandon Young · slot 5
 11.0%Palantir 10.7%market +0.4pp
P 11.0
F 12.3
V 10.3
2.0pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
20
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1
 14.3%Palantir 14.8%market -0.5pp
P 14.3
F 13.0
V 14.0
1.3pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
21
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4
 12.6%Palantir 13.1%market -0.5pp
P 12.6
F 11.9
V 11.7
0.9pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
22
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
 15.2%Palantir 15.8%market -0.6pp
P 15.2
F 14.0
V 15.1
1.1pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
23
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs CINHunter Greene · slot 5
 13.5%Palantir 14.1%market -0.6pp
P 13.5
F 12.3
V 18.0
5.7pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
24
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 5
 13.8%Palantir 14.5%market -0.7pp
P 13.8
F 13.7
V 12.6
1.2pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
25
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs NYYWill Warren · slot 6
 12.9%Palantir 13.6%market -0.7pp
P 12.9
F 13.0
V 9.9
3.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
26
Edouard Julien COL
Lineup pending
COL vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6
 10.6%Palantir 11.3%market -0.7pp
P 10.6
F 12.3
V 9.6
2.7pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 785 avg 3 books
27
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs NYYWill Warren · slot 4
 14.6%Palantir 15.5%market -0.9pp
P 14.6
F 13.7
V 13.2
1.4pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
28
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 5
 9.4%Palantir 10.3%market -0.9pp
P 9.4
F 12.3
V 8.1
4.3pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 870 avg 3 books
29
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs SEABryce Miller · slot 7
 11.4%Palantir 12.5%market -1.1pp
P 11.4
F 12.9
V 10.2
2.8pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
30
Brenton Doyle COL
IN
COL vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 5
 11.5%Palantir 12.6%market -1.1pp
P 11.5
F 12.0
V 11.7
0.5pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 695 avg 3 books
31
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3
 12.5%Palantir 13.8%market -1.3pp
P 12.5
F 13.7
V 11.1
2.7pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
32
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 4
 16.0%Palantir 18.0%market -2.0pp
P 16.0
F 14.0
V 19.7
5.7pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
33
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 5
 12.1%Palantir 14.2%market -2.0pp
P 12.1
F 12.3
V 13.2
1.0pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
34
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 5
 10.9%Palantir 13.0%market -2.1pp
P 10.9
F 12.3
V 18.3
7.4pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
35
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 6
 11.1%Palantir 13.4%market -2.3pp
P 11.1
F 9.4
V 13.0
3.6pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
36
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
 10.1%Palantir 12.8%market -2.7pp
P 10.1
F 12.3
V 14.6
4.5pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
37
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
 12.7%Palantir 15.5%market -2.8pp
P 12.7
F 12.9
V 13.4
0.7pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
38
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs NYYWill Warren · slot 5
 12.2%Palantir 15.3%market -3.0pp
P 12.2
F 13.0
V 13.2
0.9pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
39
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5
 11.0%Palantir 14.8%market -3.8pp
P 11.0
F 13.0
V 13.7
2.7pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
40
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5
 12.1%Palantir 16.0%market -3.9pp
P 12.1
F 13.0
V 13.8
1.7pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
41
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 6
 9.4%Palantir 7.7%market +1.8pp
P 9.4
F 12.9
V 7.1
5.9pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
42
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs TORDylan Cease · slot 2
 14.2%Palantir 12.5%market +1.7pp
P 14.2
F 13.7
V 11.0
3.2pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
43
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs CINHunter Greene · slot 1
 7.2%Palantir 8.0%market -0.8pp
P 7.2
F 10.2
V 14.1
6.9pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
44
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
 6.7%Palantir 8.0%market -1.3pp
P 6.7
F 10.2
V 14.4
7.7pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
45
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
 15.5%Palantir 17.4%market -1.9pp
P 15.5
F 14.0
V 13.7
1.8pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
46
Andy Pages LAD
IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 7
 12.0%Palantir 13.9%market -1.9pp
P 12.0
F 10.8
V 8.6
3.4pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
47
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5
 15.5%Palantir 17.7%market -2.2pp
P 15.5
F 14.0
V 15.0
1.5pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
48
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
 8.7%Palantir 11.0%market -2.3pp
P 8.7
F 4.5
V 12.9
8.4pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
49
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
 13.7%Palantir 16.4%market -2.7pp
P 13.7
F 12.5
V 13.0
1.2pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
50
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 5
 13.8%Palantir 16.7%market -2.9pp
P 13.8
F 13.0
V 13.1
0.8pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
51
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs NYMKodai Senga · slot 1
 5.1%Palantir 8.0%market -2.9pp
P 5.1
F 6.3
V 12.0
6.9pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
52
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
 15.7%Palantir 18.7%market -3.0pp
P 15.7
F 14.0
V 13.7
1.9pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
53
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
 15.3%Palantir 18.4%market -3.0pp
P 15.3
F 14.0
V 13.2
2.1pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
54
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4
 14.3%Palantir 17.4%market -3.1pp
P 14.3
F 14.0
V 14.7
0.6pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
55
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4
 13.7%Palantir 17.0%market -3.3pp
P 13.7
F 13.7
V 13.4
0.3pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
56
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
 4.6%Palantir 8.0%market -3.4pp
P 4.6
F 6.3
V 10.2
5.7pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
57
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 1
 14.5%Palantir 18.0%market -3.5pp
P 14.5
F 13.0
V 13.4
1.5pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
58
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs BALBrandon Young · slot 2
 15.9%Palantir 19.6%market -3.7pp
P 15.9
F 14.0
V 15.0
1.9pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
59
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4
 14.2%Palantir 18.2%market -4.0pp
P 14.2
F 13.0
V 14.4
1.4pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
60
Jorge Polanco NYM
IN
NYM vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4
 13.0%Palantir 17.1%market -4.1pp
P 13.0
F 13.7
V 14.3
1.4pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
61
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2
 13.9%Palantir 18.0%market -4.1pp
P 13.9
F 14.0
V 11.7
2.3pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
62
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5
 13.6%Palantir 17.9%market -4.2pp
P 13.6
F 13.7
V 14.8
1.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
63
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 2
 14.5%Palantir 19.4%market -4.9pp
P 14.5
F 13.0
V 14.7
1.7pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
64
Brandon Lowe PIT
IN
PIT vs CINHunter Greene · slot 4
 15.3%Palantir 20.4%market -5.1pp
P 15.3
F 13.7
V 15.7
2.0pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
65
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 1
 2.9%Palantir 8.0%market -5.1pp
P 2.9
F 0.0
V 6.7
6.7pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
66
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3
 12.4%Palantir 18.4%market -6.0pp
P 12.4
F 12.3
V 12.9
0.6pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
67
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
 9.1%Palantir 15.8%market -6.6pp
P 9.1
F 11.9
V 14.8
5.6pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
68
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 4
 12.2%Palantir 19.1%market -6.9pp
P 12.2
F 12.3
V 13.3
1.2pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
69
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 2
 13.8%Palantir 20.8%market -7.1pp
P 13.8
F 13.7
V 15.1
1.4pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
70
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 2
 13.9%Palantir 21.1%market -7.1pp
P 13.9
F 13.7
V 14.1
0.3pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
71
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 2
 14.5%Palantir 22.5%market -8.0pp
P 14.5
F 13.7
V 14.7
1.0pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
72
Marcell Ozuna PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CINHunter Greene · slot 2
 12.8%Palantir 21.1%market -8.2pp
P 12.8
F 12.3
V 16.8
4.4pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
73
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 4
 12.9%Palantir 22.0%market -9.1pp
P 12.9
F 14.0
V 13.6
1.1pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
74
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4
 10.1%Palantir 19.2%market -9.1pp
P 10.1
F 12.0
V 13.3
3.1pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
75
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
 12.3%Palantir 21.7%market -9.4pp
P 12.3
F 12.3
V 16.6
4.3pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
76
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3
 14.4%Palantir 26.3%market -11.9pp
P 14.4
F 11.9
V 14.4
2.5pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
77
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
 11.0%Palantir 23.3%market -12.3pp
P 11.0
F 10.8
V 11.7
0.8pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
78
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs BALBrandon Young · slot 3
 14.5%Palantir 27.0%market -12.5pp
P 14.5
F 13.7
V 14.8
1.1pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
79
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
 12.3%Palantir 29.0%market -16.7pp
P 12.3
F 13.0
V 16.4
4.2pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status2464roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.