Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs CWSSean Burke
Sample4093.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.3
F 12.5
V 15.0
Model 20.7% Market 13.5% Gap +6.7pp
FanDuel 615 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 75.0% Market 75.9% Gap +14.6pp
BetMGM -315 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.1% Market -- Gap +4.2pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
76
Exit velocity91.1
88
Hard-hit%48.2%
88
xBA0.355
85
xSLG0.624
85
xwOBA0.360
94
BB%13.2%
92 +47 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
63
K%23.2%
48
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · LF
37
Arm Strength95.0 · LF
59
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
12
Range Runs-2.9 · LF
19
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · LF
69
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
94
Sprint Speed28.2 · LF
72
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.6%
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3%
78
Correct Decisions71.2%
91
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.391
RegressionNegative · -0.011
Opposing pitcherSean Burke
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)