Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-07-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-23

Royce Lewis

MIN · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs CLEGavin Williams
Sample1171.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.5
F 11.6
V 14.1
Model 15.3% Market 15.2% Gap -0.5pp
DraftKings 535 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 67.7% Market 68.8% Gap +11.7pp
BetMGM -220 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 14.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 14.7% Market -- Gap +5.9pp
FanDuel 410 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.1%
86
Exit velocity89.0
61
Hard-hit%40.3%
56
xBA0.319
47
xSLG0.555
65
xwOBA0.308
51
BB%9.2%
59 +23 vs proj
Bat speed72.1
80
K%25.4%
35 -20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 3B
60
Arm Strength83.2 · 3B
25
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 3B
18
Range Runs-2.9 · 3B
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · 1B
53
Sprint Speed27.7 · 1B
58
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.4%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.306 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.250
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.362 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.306
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.328
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.284 to 0.357
RegressionNegative · -0.020
Opposing pitcherGavin Williams
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)