Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-08-18 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-18

Adley Rutschman

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs NYYCarlos Rodón
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 18 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.6
F 12.8
V 15.1
Model 20.3% Market 11.9% Gap +7.9pp
DraftKings 710 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.7% Market 75.6% Gap +13.7pp
BetMGM -310 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.6% Market -- Gap +10.9pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
56
Exit velocity88.9
61
Hard-hit%41.8%
64 +16 vs proj
xBA0.322
53
xSLG0.511
54
xwOBA0.341
84
BB%11.0%
78
Bat speed69.0
41
K%15.3%
87
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.6 · C
76
Catcher Throwing3.3 · C
97
Framing Runs4.5 · C
91
Pop Time1.9 · C
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.2 · C
22
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.5%
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5%
28
Correct Decisions65.6%
45
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
64

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.386
RegressionNegative · -0.011
Opposing pitcherCarlos Rodón
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)