Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-07-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-24

Isaac Paredes

HOU · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs CWSDavis Martin
Sample2269.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.2
F 12.2
V 14.1
Model 17.4% Market 15.2% Gap +1.6pp
FanDuel 530 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.2% Market 72.2% Gap +12.9pp
BetMGM -260 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.6% Market -- Gap +6.0pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
38
Exit velocity86.8
32
Hard-hit%30.9%
17
xBA0.295
23
xSLG0.451
28
xwOBA0.319
62
BB%9.5%
63
Bat speed66.0
11
K%15.5%
85
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 3B
41
Arm Strength80.8 · 3B
9
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
44
Range Runs0.3 · 3B
53
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 3B
23
Sprint Speed25.0 · 3B
5
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.9%
67
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3%
49
Correct Decisions66.9%
59
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
66
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.256 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.377 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.390
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.283 to 0.366
RegressionNegative · -0.045
Opposing pitcherDavis Martin
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)