Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-08-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-01

Isaac Paredes

HOU · Hitter
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs TEXJacob deGrom
Sample2296.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.8
F 14.0
V 14.3
Model 19.6% Market 15.2% Gap +3.7pp
FanDuel 530 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.2% Market 71.0% Gap +12.6pp
BetMGM -245 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 15.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.2% Market -- Gap +5.8pp
FanDuel 410 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
38
Exit velocity86.6
33
Hard-hit%30.5%
18
xBA0.299
27
xSLG0.457
32
xwOBA0.325
69
BB%9.7%
65
Bat speed65.8
10
K%15.0%
87
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 3B
43
Arm Strength80.8 · 3B
8
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
44
Range Runs-0.0 · 3B
48
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · 3B
22
Sprint Speed25.0 · 3B
5
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.9%
71
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
56
Correct Decisions67.7%
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
71
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.270 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.393 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.381
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.034
Opposing pitcherJacob deGrom
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)