Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Geraldo Perdomo

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample2304.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.7
F 13.2
V 7.5
Model 14.0% Market 9.3% Gap +4.4pp
DraftKings 935 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.3% Market 81.3% Gap +16.8pp
BetMGM -435 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.1% Market -- Gap +4.1pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
12 -18 vs proj
Exit velocity85.7
25
Hard-hit%30.9%
19
xBA0.303
32
xSLG0.408
16
xwOBA0.328
76
BB%13.9%
95
Bat speed63.6
4
K%12.3%
96
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · SS
88
Arm Strength93.2 · SS
90
Outs Above Avg11.0 · SS
97
Range Runs9.5 · SS
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.0 · SS
43
SB Success Rate72.0% · SS
29
Sprint Speed27.0 · SS
39
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.1%
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.1%
17
Correct Decisions66.9%
58
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
69

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.369
RegressionNegative · -0.026
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)