Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-07-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-23

Alec Burleson

STL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 3 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSTL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt
Sample1790.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.3
F 15.5
V 12.7
Model 18.6% Market 13.3% Gap +4.8pp
DraftKings 625 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 78.6% Market 79.6% Gap +15.1pp
BetMGM -390 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.6% Market -- Gap +8.8pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.5%
88 +26 vs proj
Exit velocity91.6
90
Hard-hit%48.6%
88 +23 vs proj
xBA0.357
83
xSLG0.646
86
xwOBA0.384
97 +20 vs proj
BB%8.0%
44
Bat speed71.6
76
K%15.1%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
18
Range Runs-0.8 · 1B
41
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · 1B
44
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
12
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.9%
41
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8%
42
Correct Decisions65.5%
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.328
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.318 to 0.376
RegressionPositive · 0.012
Opposing pitcherBrandon Pfaadt
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)