Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs AZCorbin Burnes
Sample2983.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.5
F 13.2
V 20.7
Model 21.2% Market 16.9% Gap +3.7pp
FanDuel 470 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 79.1% Market 80.2% Gap +16.4pp
BetMGM -405 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 28.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 28.7% Market -- Gap +13.9pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.6%
92
Exit velocity92.3
95
Hard-hit%51.9%
96
xBA0.381
96
xSLG0.644
88
xwOBA0.386
99
BB%10.4%
72 +36 vs proj
Bat speed72.2
82
K%17.6%
79
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
75
Arm Strength94.0 · SS
94
Outs Above Avg24.0 · SS
100
Range Runs16.9 · SS
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs7.1 · SS
100
Bolts79.0 · SS
98
SB Success Rate88.6% · SS
77
Sprint Speed30.1 · SS
99
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.2%
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2%
40
Correct Decisions63.3%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
31

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.326 to 0.422
RegressionPositive · 0.015
Opposing pitcherCorbin Burnes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)