Mithrandir Metrics
CLE 2026-08-04 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-04

Steven Kwan

CLE · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCLE vs NYMSean Manaea
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 7.0
F 11.2
V 13.3
Model 10.1% Market 8.3% Gap +1.4pp
DraftKings 1060 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.3% Market 71.4% Gap +12.9pp
BetMGM -250 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.1% Market -- Gap +6.3pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.2%
2
Exit velocity81.9
5
Hard-hit%9.4%
0
xBA0.314
40
xSLG0.385
9
xwOBA0.327
73
BB%14.0%
93 +47 vs proj
Bat speed60.4
0
K%10.2%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · LF
59
Arm Strength92.4 · LF
45
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
79
Range Runs5.5 · LF
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · LF
51
SB Success Rate80.0% · LF
49
Sprint Speed26.9 · LF
36
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.8%
96
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.2%
16
Correct Decisions67.8%
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
85

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.018
Opposing pitcherSean Manaea
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)