Mithrandir Metrics
CLE 2026-08-20 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-20

Steven Kwan

CLE · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCLE vs SFLanden Roupp
Sample2711.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 7.0
F 10.3
V 11.3
Model 7.9% Market 8.9% Gap -1.3pp
FanDuel 985 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.4% Market 74.4% Gap +13.4pp
BetMGM -290 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 29.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.4% Market -- Gap +0.9pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.2%
2
Exit velocity82.1
5
Hard-hit%9.2%
0
xBA0.309
36
xSLG0.380
8
xwOBA0.323
70
BB%13.7%
93 +47 vs proj
Bat speed60.1
0
K%10.3%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · LF
59
Arm Strength92.4 · LF
42
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs7.0 · LF
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · CF
56
Bolts1.0 · CF
13
SB Success Rate80.0% · CF
48
Sprint Speed27.2 · CF
45
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.8%
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.6%
17
Correct Decisions67.8%
68
Resists FastballwOBA 0.342
40
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
85
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.251
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.023
Opposing pitcherLanden Roupp
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)