Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-08-18 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-18

Jarren Duran

BOS · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBOS vs AZMerrill Kelly
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.5
F 13.1
V 12.3
Model 19.5% Market 11.8% Gap +7.2pp
DraftKings 715 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 82.7% Market 83.7% Gap +15.4pp
BetMGM -515 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 29.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.6% Market -- Gap +5.5pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
68
Exit velocity88.9
60
Hard-hit%41.0%
60 -22 vs proj
xBA0.336
69
xSLG0.550
65
xwOBA0.292
35 -45 vs proj
BB%7.3%
35
Bat speed72.9
89
K%28.3%
21 -30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · LF
42
Arm Strength92.0 · LF
40
Outs Above Avg4.0 · LF
95
Range Runs3.6 · LF
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.5 · LF
90
Bolts10.0 · LF
65
SB Success Rate86.7% · LF
70
Sprint Speed29.0 · LF
90
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.4%
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.4%
29
Correct Decisions62.3%
16
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
22

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.374
RegressionNegative · -0.003
Opposing pitcherMerrill Kelly
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)