Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-07-23 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-23

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · Hitter
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs CLEGavin Williams
Sample1781.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 2.5
P 24.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.9% Market 26.6% Gap +2.2pp
DraftKings 285 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 13.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.3% Market -- Gap +11.1pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.9%
97 +39 vs proj
Exit velocity89.5
68
Hard-hit%39.3%
50
xBA0.321
51
xSLG0.605
78
xwOBA0.385
97 +34 vs proj
BB%13.6%
92 +39 vs proj
Bat speed71.1
72
K%14.7%
87 +25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.2 · C
60
Catcher Throwing-1.4 · C
16
Framing Runs0.4 · C
60
Pop Time2.0 · C
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.5 · C
27
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.361 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.423
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.072
Opposing pitcherGavin Williams
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)