Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-08-18 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-18

Brendan Donovan

SEA · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSEA vs MILKyle Harrison
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 18 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.7
F 12.8
V 10.0
Model 14.7% Market 9.2% Gap +5.2pp
DraftKings 955 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 75.1% Market 76.2% Gap +13.9pp
BetMGM -320 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.1% Market -- Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 330 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.0%
23
Exit velocity86.5
33
Hard-hit%30.0%
16
xBA0.290
19
xSLG0.403
14
xwOBA0.306
51
BB%8.9%
56
Bat speed66.8
19
K%13.7%
92
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength86.4 · 3B
44
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
44
Range Runs-3.1 · 3B
22
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.7 · 3B
12
SB Success Rate50.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.8%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.6%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.123
Opposing pitcherKyle Harrison
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)