Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-07-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-24

Andy Pages

LAD · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAD vs NYMSean Manaea
Sample1376.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.3
F 11.4
V 13.7
Model 16.2% Market 13.4% Gap +2.3pp
DraftKings 620 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.1% Market 78.0% Gap +14.5pp
BetMGM -355 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.4% Market -- Gap +14.6pp
FanDuel 185 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.4%
56
Exit velocity88.8
57
Hard-hit%43.8%
71 +25 vs proj
xBA0.346
76
xSLG0.570
69
xwOBA0.338
78
BB%8.1%
44 +24 vs proj
Bat speed70.8
69
K%19.8%
65
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs5.1 · CF
100
Arm Strength98.8 · CF
91
Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF
97
Range Runs5.0 · CF
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · CF
36
SB Success Rate61.5% · CF
15
Sprint Speed28.3 · CF
76
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.9%
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.9%
54
Correct Decisions65.1%
39
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
38
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.372 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.381
RegressionNegative · -0.023
Opposing pitcherSean Manaea
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)