Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-03 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-03

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs BALTrevor Rogers
Sample1903.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.9
F 16.6
V 16.5
Model 21.1% Market 15.0% Gap +5.5pp
FanDuel 540 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 67.0% Market 80.2% Gap +13.6pp
FanDuel -120 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 28.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 28.2% Market -- Gap +5.2pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.5%
93 +16 vs proj
Exit velocity94.6
99
Hard-hit%55.3%
97
xBA0.404
97
xSLG0.726
96
xwOBA0.360
89
BB%8.9%
53
Bat speed73.3
91
K%28.8%
19
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
45
Arm Strength96.6 · SS
98
Outs Above Avg5.0 · SS
93
Range Runs3.6 · SS
83
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.0 · SS
47
Bolts3.0 · SS
44
SB Success Rate60.0% · SS
10
Sprint Speed28.3 · SS
77
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.2%
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.9%
13
Correct Decisions64.8%
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.326
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.375
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.406
RegressionNegative · -0.051
Opposing pitcherTrevor Rogers
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)