Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-07-03 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
60
Matched
207
Lineups
144
HR BOARD 2026-07-03 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 2
 21.2%Palantir 13.1%market +8.1pp
P 21.2
F 16.6
V 14.5
6.7pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
02
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3
 19.6%Palantir 11.7%market +7.9pp
P 19.6
F 16.6
V 12.0
7.6pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
03
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 3
 20.2%Palantir 12.7%market +7.4pp
P 20.2
F 21.1
V 14.6
6.5pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
04
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 3
 15.9%Palantir 8.9%market +7.1pp
P 15.9
F 16.3
V 12.3
4.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 990 avg 3 books
05
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3
 18.1%Palantir 11.1%market +7.0pp
P 18.1
F 13.6
V 15.7
4.5pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
06
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 1
 20.2%Palantir 13.9%market +6.2pp
P 20.2
F 16.6
V 17.7
3.5pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
07
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 2
 20.3%Palantir 14.2%market +6.1pp
P 20.3
F 21.1
V 16.0
5.1pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
08
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 1
 20.9%Palantir 15.0%market +5.9pp
P 20.9
F 16.6
V 16.5
4.4pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
09
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
 17.8%Palantir 13.0%market +4.8pp
P 17.8
F 16.6
V 13.0
4.8pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
10
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
 19.5%Palantir 15.0%market +4.5pp
P 19.5
F 16.3
V 16.6
3.2pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
11
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 5
 17.5%Palantir 13.1%market +4.4pp
P 17.5
F 16.6
V 13.9
3.6pp 0.990xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
12
Spencer Steer CIN
IN
CIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
 18.7%Palantir 14.4%market +4.3pp
P 18.7
F 16.3
V 16.6
2.4pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
13
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 4
 15.6%Palantir 12.4%market +3.2pp
P 15.6
F 15.6
V 17.0
1.4pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
14
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 2
 18.8%Palantir 16.2%market +2.6pp
P 18.8
F 16.3
V 14.3
4.5pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
15
Adley Rutschman BAL
IN
BAL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 5
 14.5%Palantir 11.9%market +2.6pp
P 14.5
F 14.9
V 16.6
2.1pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
16
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2
 20.8%Palantir 18.5%market +2.3pp
P 20.8
F 16.3
V 15.6
5.2pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 420 avg 3 books
17
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 5
 15.8%Palantir 13.6%market +2.1pp
P 15.8
F 15.5
V 15.2
0.6pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
18
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 4
 16.9%Palantir 14.8%market +2.1pp
P 16.9
F 15.6
V 14.0
2.8pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
19
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
 13.6%Palantir 11.7%market +1.9pp
P 13.6
F 14.9
V 15.4
1.8pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
20
Jorge Polanco NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4
 18.0%Palantir 16.2%market +1.8pp
P 18.0
F 16.6
V 15.3
2.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
21
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
 18.8%Palantir 17.3%market +1.4pp
P 18.8
F 15.5
V 17.1
3.3pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
22
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 6
 14.1%Palantir 13.1%market +1.0pp
P 14.1
F 15.5
V 11.8
3.7pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
23
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 5
 13.9%Palantir 13.0%market +0.9pp
P 13.9
F 15.6
V 16.1
2.2pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
24
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5
 9.6%Palantir 10.3%market -0.7pp
P 9.6
F 14.9
V 15.4
5.7pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 870 avg 3 books
25
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 5
 12.6%Palantir 14.5%market -1.9pp
P 12.6
F 14.5
V 14.1
1.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
26
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 2
 19.9%Palantir 16.4%market +3.5pp
P 19.9
F 16.6
V 18.6
3.3pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
27
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4
 20.6%Palantir 17.2%market +3.4pp
P 20.6
F 16.6
V 16.8
3.9pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
28
Nathan Lukes TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 6
 11.7%Palantir 9.1%market +2.6pp
P 11.7
F 15.6
V 12.4
3.9pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
29
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 6
 10.1%Palantir 7.7%market +2.4pp
P 10.1
F 15.5
V 14.5
5.4pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
30
Corbin Carroll AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 1
 17.7%Palantir 16.0%market +1.7pp
P 17.7
F 16.3
V 14.6
3.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
31
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3
 18.5%Palantir 17.8%market +0.7pp
P 18.5
F 16.6
V 14.3
4.2pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
32
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 5
 15.9%Palantir 15.4%market +0.5pp
P 15.9
F 14.9
V 14.3
1.6pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
33
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 7
 7.8%Palantir 8.0%market -0.2pp
P 7.8
F 13.3
V 11.0
5.5pp 0.990xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
34
Randy Arozarena SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 5
 14.0%Palantir 14.5%market -0.5pp
P 14.0
F 14.9
V 14.1
1.0pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
35
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 4
 17.1%Palantir 17.7%market -0.6pp
P 17.1
F 14.9
V 14.9
2.2pp 0.990xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
36
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
 17.3%Palantir 18.2%market -0.9pp
P 17.3
F 15.6
V 16.2
1.7pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
37
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1
 7.0%Palantir 8.0%market -1.0pp
P 7.0
F 13.7
V 13.5
6.7pp 0.990xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
38
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs TBNick Martinez · slot 5
 13.9%Palantir 16.0%market -2.1pp
P 13.9
F 15.5
V 15.8
1.9pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
39
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5
 13.1%Palantir 15.3%market -2.2pp
P 13.1
F 14.9
V 14.0
1.8pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
40
George Springer TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1
 15.5%Palantir 17.7%market -2.2pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 16.4
1.5pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
41
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 3
 16.6%Palantir 19.1%market -2.4pp
P 16.6
F 14.9
V 15.2
1.7pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
42
Ketel Marte AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 2
 18.6%Palantir 21.5%market -2.9pp
P 18.6
F 16.6
V 15.6
3.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 365 avg 3 books
43
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1
 5.0%Palantir 8.0%market -3.0pp
P 5.0
F 12.8
V 13.6
8.6pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
44
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2
 13.8%Palantir 17.0%market -3.1pp
P 13.8
F 16.3
V 16.4
2.6pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
45
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2
 17.7%Palantir 20.8%market -3.1pp
P 17.7
F 14.9
V 15.4
2.8pp 0.990xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
46
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
 14.3%Palantir 17.7%market -3.4pp
P 14.3
F 16.3
V 16.1
2.0pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
47
Josh Naylor SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4
 13.4%Palantir 17.0%market -3.6pp
P 13.4
F 14.9
V 14.8
1.5pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
48
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
 4.3%Palantir 8.0%market -3.7pp
P 4.3
F 11.0
V 12.6
8.3pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
49
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
 18.9%Palantir 23.0%market -4.1pp
P 18.9
F 15.5
V 17.2
3.4pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
50
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
 16.6%Palantir 20.8%market -4.2pp
P 16.6
F 16.3
V 16.7
0.4pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
51
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1
 19.9%Palantir 24.1%market -4.2pp
P 19.9
F 21.1
V 15.4
5.6pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 315 avg 3 books
52
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 3
 17.8%Palantir 22.5%market -4.7pp
P 17.8
F 15.6
V 17.2
2.2pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
53
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 4
 17.2%Palantir 22.0%market -4.8pp
P 17.2
F 16.6
V 15.2
2.0pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
54
Teoscar Hernández LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 4
 13.2%Palantir 18.4%market -5.2pp
P 13.2
F 14.6
V 14.9
1.7pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
55
Daulton Varsho TOR
Lineup pending Triple
TOR vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4
 12.3%Palantir 17.5%market -5.2pp
P 12.3
F 14.6
V 16.9
4.6pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
56
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 1
 2.5%Palantir 8.0%market -5.5pp
P 2.5
F 4.8
V 10.2
7.7pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
57
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 6
 12.0%Palantir 19.2%market -7.2pp
P 12.0
F 14.5
V 13.3
2.5pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
58
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
 13.5%Palantir 23.3%market -9.7pp
P 13.5
F 14.5
V 14.4
1.0pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
59
Cal Raleigh SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3
 14.4%Palantir 26.3%market -11.9pp
P 14.4
F 13.6
V 15.3
1.8pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
60
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 16.2%Palantir 29.8%market -13.7pp
P 16.2
F 16.3
V 17.8
1.6pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

777 sample flags
Status1673roster/transaction rows
Lineups144confirmed starters
Triple1cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.