Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Riley Greene

DET · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs MINDean Kremer
Sample2314.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 14.5
Model 19.4% Market 17.6% Gap +1.1pp
FanDuel 445 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.5% Market 78.5% Gap +15.7pp
BetMGM -365 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 24.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.8% Market -- Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel 320 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.2%
96
Exit velocity90.5
83
Hard-hit%48.3%
89
xBA0.385
96
xSLG0.733
97
xwOBA0.372
96
BB%11.4%
83 +30 vs proj
Bat speed74.0
94
K%26.9%
30
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-3.3 · LF
4
Arm Strength86.1 · LF
6
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
12
Range Runs-2.3 · LF
22
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · LF
36
Sprint Speed26.7 · LF
30
SB Success Rate66.7% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.0%
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.9%
86
Correct Decisions69.9%
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.311 to 0.392
RegressionNegative · -0.019
Opposing pitcherDean Kremer
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)