Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Corbin Carroll

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample2348.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 11.4
Model 20.6% Market 17.5% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 450 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.6% Market 81.7% Gap +16.9pp
BetMGM -445 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 30.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.2% Market -- Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.0%
87
Exit velocity92.0
93
Hard-hit%49.1%
92
xBA0.335
71
xSLG0.597
79
xwOBA0.343
88
BB%11.4%
83
Bat speed74.1
95
K%22.6%
51
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-5.0 · RF
1
Arm Strength88.7 · RF
18
Outs Above Avg10.0 · RF
98
Range Runs9.3 · RF
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs8.6 · RF
100
Bolts54.0 · RF
94
SB Success Rate90.5% · RF
83
Sprint Speed29.7 · RF
97
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.2%
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.3%
60
Correct Decisions66.8%
57
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
67

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.394
RegressionNegative · -0.020
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)