Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-24

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs ATLGrant Holmes
Sample2305.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.9
F 12.2
V 14.2
Model 20.4% Market 17.3% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 455 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 81.7% Market 82.8% Gap +16.1pp
BetMGM -480 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.1% Market -- Gap +6.3pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
46 -38 vs proj
Exit velocity89.7
71
Hard-hit%45.0%
76 -19 vs proj
xBA0.316
43
xSLG0.513
50
xwOBA0.304
48 -47 vs proj
BB%7.6%
39 -29 vs proj
Bat speed72.6
85
K%22.5%
51
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
65
Arm Strength93.9 · SS
91
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
44
Range Runs-0.2 · SS
48
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · SS
85
Bolts2.0 · SS
32
SB Success Rate85.7% · SS
66
Sprint Speed28.3 · SS
76
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.9%
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7%
26
Correct Decisions64.5%
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
27
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.320
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.296
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.415
RegressionNegative · -0.030
Opposing pitcherGrant Holmes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)