Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Michael Busch

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs MILJacob Misiorowski
Sample1635.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 18 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 10.7
Model 18.9% Market 17.8% Gap +0.4pp
FanDuel 440 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 75.5% Market 76.5% Gap +14.8pp
BetMGM -325 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 17.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.0% Market -- Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel 500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
64 -25 vs proj
Exit velocity88.4
56
Hard-hit%40.4%
60 -18 vs proj
xBA0.314
44
xSLG0.545
64
xwOBA0.328
76 -17 vs proj
BB%12.2%
88
Bat speed66.3
14
K%22.8%
50
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B
88
Range Runs3.3 · 1B
82
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.9 · 1B
6
Sprint Speed25.9 · 1B
15
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.7%
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.6%
37
Correct Decisions67.9%
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
73

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.315 to 0.379
RegressionNegative · -0.014
Opposing pitcherJacob Misiorowski
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)