Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-06-17 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-17

Drake Baldwin

ATL · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupATL vs SFAdrian Houser
Sample593.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.6
F 26.0
V 26.0
Model 22.7% Market 17.8% Gap +4.2pp
FanDuel 440 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 48.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 48.1% Market 46.8% Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 36.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 36.2% Market -- Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel 160 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%12.7%
100 +34 vs proj
Exit velocity93.0
94
Hard-hit%53.8%
96
xBA0.398
96
xSLG0.767
97
xwOBA0.418
99 +28 vs proj
BB%11.4%
78 +32 vs proj
Bat speed72.9
88
K%20.3%
60 -26 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.6 · C
82
Catcher Throwing-1.5 · C
9
Framing Runs0.2 · C
57
Pop Time1.9 · C
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · C
37
Sprint Speed26.5 · C
28
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.9%
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4%
57
Correct Decisions64.8%
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.385
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.396
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.042
Opposing pitcherAdrian Houser
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)