Mithrandir Metrics
LAA 2026-05-21 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-21

Zach Neto

LAA · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAA vs ATHLuis Severino
Sample1529.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.9
F 17.9
V 15.2
Model 17.9% Market 16.3% Gap +1.0pp
FanDuel 490 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 55.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 55.1% Market 53.8% Gap -2.7pp
FanDuel -125 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
64
Exit velocity89.7
64
Hard-hit%40.3%
47 -17 vs proj
xBA0.338
62
xSLG0.640
82
xwOBA0.328
62
BB%12.4%
81 +54 vs proj
Bat speed67.9
27
K%31.4%
8 -27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.9 · SS
100
Arm Strength93.3 · SS
90
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · SS
6
Range Runs-3.0 · SS
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · SS
8
SB Success Rate70.0% · SS
24
Sprint Speed27.2 · SS
50
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.7%
45
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.6%
76
Correct Decisions68.1%
51
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
59

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.316 to 0.374
RegressionNegative · -0.032
Opposing pitcherLuis Severino
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)