Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Spencer Horwitz

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs CWSSean Burke
Sample1077.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 17 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.8
F 13.2
V 9.7
Model 18.1% Market 11.3% Gap +6.4pp
DraftKings 755 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.7% Market 69.7% Gap +12.5pp
BetMGM -230 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.3% Market -- Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 420 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
45
Exit velocity87.0
41
Hard-hit%31.3%
20 -15 vs proj
xBA0.272
11
xSLG0.426
23
xwOBA0.311
57
BB%12.0%
87 +21 vs proj
Bat speed67.2
23
K%15.5%
87
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · 1B
10
Range Runs-3.5 · 1B
20
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.8 · 1B
4
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.6%
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.5%
37
Correct Decisions67.3%
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.352
RegressionNegative · -0.026
Opposing pitcherSean Burke
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)