Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Colt Keith

DET · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs MINDean Kremer
Sample1294.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.4
F 11.7
V 7.5
Model 16.2% Market 10.5% Gap +5.3pp
DraftKings 820 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.1% Market 73.0% Gap +13.5pp
BetMGM -270 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.2% Market -- Gap +15.2pp
FanDuel 190 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.7%
63
Exit velocity89.4
70
Hard-hit%43.1%
72
xBA0.353
84
xSLG0.544
63
xwOBA0.334
80
BB%7.8%
42
Bat speed70.3
62
K%19.7%
68
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.5 · 3B
37
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
46
Range Runs-0.3 · 3B
51
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.4 · 3B
84
Bolts1.0 · 3B
11
Sprint Speed28.0 · 3B
66
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.4%
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4%
47
Correct Decisions68.6%
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.317 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherDean Kremer
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)