Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Junior Caminero

TB · Hitter · bats R · age 23
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver
Sample1348.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 13.6
Model 16.5% Market 22.0% Gap -5.5pp
BetMGM 355 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.2% Market 75.3% Gap +14.5pp
BetMGM -305 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.6% Market -- Gap +12.6pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.2%
96
Exit velocity93.2
97
Hard-hit%51.2%
95
xBA0.346
78
xSLG0.623
85
xwOBA0.362
95
BB%11.4%
82 +48 vs proj
Bat speed78.0
100
K%18.4%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 3B
68
Arm Strength90.2 · 3B
75
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
28
Range Runs-10.5 · 3B
2
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.2 · 3B
11
Sprint Speed26.5 · 3B
26
SB Success Rate33.3% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.6%
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.4%
83
Correct Decisions66.4%
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
79

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.331 to 0.396
RegressionNegative · -0.038
Opposing pitcherAj Smith-Shawver
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)