Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-07-31 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-31

Colson Montgomery

CWS · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCWS vs TBNick Martinez
Sample638.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.0
F 10.8
V 11.7
Model 17.6% Market 23.3% Gap -5.7pp
BetMGM 330 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.6% Market 71.4% Gap +12.6pp
BetMGM -250 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 16.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.9% Market -- Gap +6.9pp
FanDuel 320 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
78
Exit velocity89.2
64
Hard-hit%42.7%
68
xBA0.337
68
xSLG0.667
91
xwOBA0.315
60
BB%8.5%
49
Bat speed74.5
97
K%32.1%
8
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · SS
23
Arm Strength82.5 · SS
18
Outs Above Avg2.0 · SS
77
Range Runs3.7 · SS
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.4 · SS
7
Sprint Speed26.6 · SS
29
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.7%
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8%
64
Correct Decisions66.2%
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
42
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.311 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.318
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.368 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.300
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.383
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.029
Opposing pitcherNick Martinez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)