Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-08-20 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-20

Colson Montgomery

CWS · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCWS vs ATLGrant Holmes
Sample706.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.7
F 11.7
V 11.6
Model 16.8% Market 22.7% Gap +3.2pp
DraftKings 325 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.9% Market 71.8% Gap +12.8pp
BetMGM -255 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 14.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 14.7% Market -- Gap +6.6pp
FanDuel 400 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.6%
74
Exit velocity88.8
60
Hard-hit%41.9%
66
xBA0.333
67
xSLG0.652
90
xwOBA0.303
47 -20 vs proj
BB%8.1%
45
Bat speed74.5
96
K%33.5%
6 -15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · SS
24
Arm Strength82.5 · SS
16
Outs Above Avg3.0 · SS
84
Range Runs5.8 · SS
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.1 · SS
9
Sprint Speed26.6 · SS
29
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.4%
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7%
56
Correct Decisions65.6%
46
Resists FastballwOBA 0.279
100
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
35
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.263 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.302 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.316
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.370 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.399
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.025
Opposing pitcherGrant Holmes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)