Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-08-04 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-04

Ben Rice

NYY · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs STLHunter Dobbins
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 18 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.4
F 13.9
V 11.2
Model 16.1% Market 15.7% Gap -0.2pp
DraftKings 515 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.5% Market 70.6% Gap +12.6pp
BetMGM -240 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.6% Market -- Gap +13.6pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.6%
95
Exit velocity92.0
93
Hard-hit%47.5%
85
xBA0.379
94
xSLG0.727
96
xwOBA0.377
97
BB%11.3%
80
Bat speed70.8
71
K%25.1%
35 -29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · 1B
10
Range Runs-4.1 · 1B
13
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · 1B
23
Sprint Speed26.8 · 1B
34
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.0%
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9%
42
Correct Decisions68.3%
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.333 to 0.413
RegressionNegative · -0.030
Opposing pitcherHunter Dobbins
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)