Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-07-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-23

Jackson Merrill

SD · Hitter · bats L · age 23
IN · 3 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSD vs ATLChris Sale
Sample1381.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.3
F 11.4
V 11.5
Model 20.1% Market 14.6% Gap +4.9pp
FanDuel 560 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 75.6% Market 76.5% Gap +14.1pp
BetMGM -325 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 21.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 21.6% Market -- Gap +1.7pp
FanDuel 330 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.5%
71 -19 vs proj
Exit velocity88.7
56
Hard-hit%45.9%
80
xBA0.337
66
xSLG0.582
72
xwOBA0.313
57 -38 vs proj
BB%6.9%
30
Bat speed71.4
74
K%24.7%
38 -31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs4.0 · CF
99
Arm Strength96.7 · CF
75
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs1.4 · CF
65
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.5 · CF
95
Bolts10.0 · CF
69
SB Success Rate86.7% · CF
69
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
90
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.4%
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.5%
90
Correct Decisions67.1%
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.266 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.332 to 0.415
RegressionPositive · 0.009
Opposing pitcherChris Sale
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)