Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-08-18 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-18

Jakob Marsee

MIA · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIA vs PHIZack Wheeler
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.7
F 12.8
V 12.6
Model 15.2% Market 10.1% Gap +4.7pp
DraftKings 855 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.7% Market 73.7% Gap +13.3pp
BetMGM -280 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.7% Market -- Gap +3.0pp
FanDuel 340 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.2%
14 -37 vs proj
Exit velocity85.0
20
Hard-hit%34.3%
31 -17 vs proj
xBA0.298
26
xSLG0.424
22
xwOBA0.300
44
BB%12.2%
87 +47 vs proj
Bat speed66.6
18
K%21.4%
57
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.4 · CF
5
Arm Strength95.0 · CF
62
Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF
97
Range Runs5.4 · CF
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · CF
39
SB Success Rate57.9% · CF
9
Sprint Speed27.9 · CF
62
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.7%
88
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4%
37
Correct Decisions68.4%
74
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
82

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.259 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.004
Opposing pitcherZack Wheeler
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)