Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-07-31 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-31

Chase Meidroth

CWS · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 8 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCWS vs TBNick Martinez
Sample837.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 4.6
F 6.3
V 10.2
Model 7.5% Market 7.7% Gap -0.5pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 55.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.7% Market 67.7% Gap +11.9pp
BetMGM -210 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.4% Market -- Gap +4.6pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.3%
25
Exit velocity86.4
32
Hard-hit%36.8%
40
xBA0.317
45
xSLG0.453
30
xwOBA0.290
32 -18 vs proj
BB%8.9%
55
Bat speed64.2
4
K%22.6%
48 -40 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 2B
38
Arm Strength81.6 · 2B
10
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 2B
88
Range Runs3.6 · 2B
83
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · 2B
58
Sprint Speed27.2 · 2B
45
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.3%
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.4%
15
Correct Decisions65.3%
41
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.344
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.265 to 0.353
RegressionNegative · -0.077
Opposing pitcherNick Martinez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)