Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 35 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 215 lb |
| Debut | 2013-04-28 |
Player profile / Arizona Diamondbacks
Nolan Arenado
3B · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 215 lb · Age 35
Club Arizona Diamondbacks
Position 3B
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 635 | 70 | 157 | 16 | 2 | .272 | .325 | .394 | .719 |
| 2025 | 436 | 48 | 95 | 12 | 3 | .237 | .289 | .377 | .666 |
| 2026 | 351 | 45 | 75 | 12 | 3 | .240 | .316 | .410 | .726 |
| 14 Seasons | 7865 | 1037 | 1996 | 365 | 34 | .280 | .337 | .503 | .840 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
33
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.300 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.294 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.296 |
| Observed weight | 62% |
xwOBA
0.272
0.283
0.296
0.309
0.321
wOBA
0.314
0.329
0.346
0.363
0.378
ISO
0.138
0.152
0.167
0.182
0.195
K%
16.0%
17.1%
18.2%
19.4%
20.4%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
48
+22 vs proj
Exit velocity85.2
20
Hard-hit%33.1%
25
xBA0.306
31
xSLG0.469
35
xwOBA0.294
37
BB%8.3%
47
+19 vs proj
Bat speed69.3
44
K%20.5%
62
-24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength83.6 · 3B
30
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 3B
89
Range Runs2.8 · 3B
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.0 · 3B
17
Sprint Speed25.3 · 3B
8
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.7% · rebadged research
46
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9% · rebadged research
18
Correct Decisions63.2% · rebadged research
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · borderline
47
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
79
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
29
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
29
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361 · validated
15
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
15
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
180 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.050 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Arenado’s wOBA sits at 0.346, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.294 — a gap of 0.051, -1.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 361 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Varsho, Daulton TOR · L | 0.61 | xwOBA on contactBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Paredes, Isaac HOU · R | 0.59 | Sprint speedxwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Bellinger, Cody NYY · L | 0.57 | Ground-ball rateBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Semien, Marcus NYM · R | 0.56 | Max exit velocityWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-06-29 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.295 xwOBA | 15 HR | Projection |
| 2026-04-17 vs TOR1 HR | 2 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | HR, 2 RBI, R |
| 2026-04-15 @ BAL0 HR | 1 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | K, RBI |
| 2026-04-14 @ BAL0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |
| 2026-04-13 @ BAL2 HR | 5 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | 2 HR, K, 5 RBI |
| 2026-04-12 @ PHI0 HR | 1 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | RBI, R |