Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-36 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Semien, Marcus
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team NYM
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 36
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
47
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.313 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.307 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.309 |
| Observed weight | 68% |
xwOBA
0.285
0.296
0.309
0.321
0.332
wOBA
0.281
0.294
0.308
0.322
0.335
ISO
0.118
0.129
0.142
0.155
0.166
K%
17.8%
18.7%
19.8%
20.8%
21.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
50
Exit velocity86.6
35
Hard-hit%34.5%
32
xBA0.327
59
xSLG0.508
53
xwOBA0.307
53
BB%8.0%
44
Bat speed66.4
14
K%21.0%
60
-22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · 2B
14
Arm Strength85.3 · 2B
34
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 2B
5
Range Runs-5.2 · 2B
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · 2B
46
SB Success Rate71.4% · 2B
27
Sprint Speed28.2 · 2B
72
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.0% · rebadged research
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4% · rebadged research
59
Correct Decisions68.5% · rebadged research
75
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.231 · borderline
100
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
58
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
39
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.321 · validated thin sample
2
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
42
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334 · validated
55
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
44
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
256 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.008 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.007 |
| Sample | 476 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 555 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.315 | 0.272 to 0.366 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.154 | 0.106 to 0.231 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 3.0% to 6.9% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.5% | 32.4% to 43.4% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 16.8% | 14.4% to 21.6% | +/- 3.6% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 6.5% to 11.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.266 | 0.244 to 0.319 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
1903 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.290 |
| K% | 14.4% |
| BB% | 9.9% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |
vs RHP
5135 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.264 |
| K% | 14.0% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |