Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-36 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Semien, Marcus
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team NYM
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 36
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.313 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.320 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.317 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.287
0.301
0.317
0.332
0.346
wOBA
0.279
0.297
0.316
0.336
0.354
ISO
0.103
0.118
0.135
0.152
0.168
K%
15.9%
17.0%
18.3%
19.5%
20.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.1%
31
-19 vs proj
Barrel%6.7%
71
+29 vs proj
Bat speed66.3
14
Exit velocity86.3
25
Hard-hit%37.6%
40
K%19.4%
65
xBA0.334
61
xSLG0.541
60
xwOBA0.320
60
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength84.5 · 2B
39
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 2B
9
Range Runs-2.3 · 2B
17
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · 2B
45
Sprint Speed28.2 · 2B
75
SB Success Rate50.0% · 2B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2% · rebadged research
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2% · rebadged research
60
Correct Decisions68.9% · rebadged research
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
57
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.225 · borderline
100
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
43
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298 · validated thin sample
9
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
31
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
82
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378 · validated
12
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
177 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.002 |
| Sample | 253 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 555 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.315 | 0.272 to 0.366 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.154 | 0.106 to 0.231 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 3.0% to 6.9% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.5% | 32.4% to 43.4% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 16.8% | 14.4% to 21.6% | +/- 3.6% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 6.5% to 11.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.266 | 0.244 to 0.319 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
1903 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.290 |
| K% | 14.4% |
| BB% | 9.9% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |
vs RHP
5135 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.264 |
| K% | 14.0% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |