Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Varsho, Daulton
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TOR
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.290 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.308 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.299 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.285
0.299
0.313
0.325
wOBA
0.339
0.358
0.379
0.400
0.419
ISO
0.136
0.153
0.172
0.190
0.207
K%
19.4%
20.8%
22.3%
23.9%
25.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
50
Barrel%5.3%
54
Bat speed71.0
71
Exit velocity86.0
22
Hard-hit%39.4%
47
K%18.7%
69
+48 vs proj
xBA0.324
52
xSLG0.467
35
xwOBA0.308
48
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · CF
47
Arm Strength89.7 · CF
23
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
45
Range Runs1.0 · CF
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · CF
24
Sprint Speed27.2 · CF
47
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.1% · rebadged research
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.8% · rebadged research
78
Correct Decisions65.2% · rebadged research
41
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
40
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · borderline
26
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
38
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
58
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
25
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
69
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.386 · validated
7
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
164 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.015 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.086 |
| Sample | 246 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 437 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.293 | 0.272 to 0.344 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.180 | 0.144 to 0.279 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 5.4% | 3.3% to 7.7% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.8% | 31.4% to 45.4% | +/- 7.0% |
| K% | 28.0% | 21.8% to 32.2% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 7.8% | 5.8% to 10.7% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.263 | 0.216 to 0.315 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
594 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.234 |
| K% | 19.3% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |
vs RHP
2003 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.244 |
| K% | 22.4% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |