Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	569	72	137	18	9	.266	.325	.426	.751
2025	656	89	160	29	13	.272	.334	.480	.814
2026	562	73	131	17	12	.264	.338	.429	.767
10 Seasons	5327	763	1233	242	116	.261	.334	.478	.812

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-16

60

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

61

Defense4 metrics

79

Speed3 metrics

26

Plate skills10 metrics

44

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-16

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%4.7%

48

Exit velocity89.2

66

Hard-hit%37.4%

46

xBA0.332

67

xSLG0.502

51

xwOBA0.335

83

BB%9.8%

68

Bat speed68.5

34

K%15.7%

87

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs2.9 · LF

92

Arm Strength99.7 · LF

90

Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF

50

Range Runs5.2 · LF

86

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-1.0 · LF

28

SB Success Rate50.0% · LF

4

Sprint Speed27.3 · LF

46

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-10-16

Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.4% · rebadged research

65

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.2% · rebadged research

48

Correct Decisions67.7% · rebadged research

65

Resists FastballwOBA 0.342 · validated

40

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104

65

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.341 · borderline

2

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · insufficient sample

9

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample

88

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample

33

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated

22

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Cody Bellinger's tools (59) outpace production (57) by 2 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High; Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-9.2° Current 29° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.3σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.343

xwOBA (deserved)0.335

Bellinger’s wOBA sits at 0.343, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.335 — a gap of 0.008, -0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 599 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Semien, Marcus NYM · R	0.76	Pull rateGround-ball rate	Player · Projection
Pasquantino, Vinnie KC · L	0.71	xwOBA on contactStrikeout rate	Player · Projection
Ramírez, José CLE · L	0.69	Isolated powerAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection
Larnach, Trevor MIN · L	0.68	xwOBA on contactOppo rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	15	2026-10-05	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	19	2026-10-07	3 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.461

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.314 xwOBA \| 26 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, K, R
2026-04-17 vs KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, R
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB
2026-04-13 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-5
2026-04-12 @ TB0 HR \| 1 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI

Age	31
Height	6' 3"
Weight	204 lb
Debut	2017-04-25

xwOBA Δ	--
wOBA Δ	--

Hitter Projections 20260.314 xwOBA \| 26 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, K, R
2026-04-17 vs KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, R
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB
2026-04-13 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-5
2026-04-12 @ TB0 HR \| 1 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI

Cody Bellinger

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail