Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	569	72	137	18	9	.266	.325	.426	.751
2025	656	89	160	29	13	.272	.334	.480	.814
2026	471	57	106	12	10	.259	.344	.416	.760
10 Seasons	5236	747	1208	237	114	.260	.335	.477	.812

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31

59

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

62

Defense4 metrics

81

Speed3 metrics

29

Plate skills10 metrics

42

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31

xwOBA preseason	0.313
xwOBA current pace	0.345
xwOBA rolling p50	0.335
Observed weight	69%

xwOBA

0.313 0.323 0.335 0.346 0.357

wOBA

0.317 0.330 0.345 0.360 0.373

ISO

0.134 0.145 0.158 0.172 0.183

K%

13.5% 14.4% 15.5% 16.5% 17.4%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%4.3%

41

Exit velocity88.9

61

Hard-hit%36.1%

40

xBA0.337

71

xSLG0.510

54

xwOBA0.345

88 +28 vs proj

BB%11.6%

84 +37 vs proj

Bat speed68.3

32

K%15.7%

86

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs3.1 · LF

96

Arm Strength99.7 · LF

90

Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF

48

Range Runs5.9 · LF

92

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-0.4 · LF

33

SB Success Rate45.5% · LF

2

Sprint Speed27.5 · LF

51

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-08-31

Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.9% · rebadged research

68

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research

43

Correct Decisions67.4% · rebadged research

64

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104

65

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.329 · borderline

6

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample

39

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.259 · validated thin sample

90

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample

11

Resists FastballwOBA 0.353 · validated

23

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated

14

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Cody Bellinger's tools (65) outpace production (60) by 6 points. Primary finding: high exit velocity but low barrel rate — bat-to-ball efficiency is leaving power on the table. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

231 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.0σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.345

xwOBA (deserved)0.345

Bellinger’s wOBA sits at 0.345, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.345 — a gap of 0.000, -0.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 483 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Semien, Marcus NYM · R	0.74	Fly-ball rateGround-ball rate	Player · Projection
Tucker, Kyle LAD · L	0.73	Avg exit velocityBarrel rate	Player · Projection
Ramírez, José CLE · L	0.69	Barrel rateBat speed	Player · Projection
Pasquantino, Vinnie KC · L	0.69	Strikeout rateBat speed	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	12	2026-08-27	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	6	2026-08-31	4 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +4.130

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.314 xwOBA \| 26 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, K, R
2026-04-17 vs KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, R
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB
2026-04-13 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-5
2026-04-12 @ TB0 HR \| 1 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI

Age	31
Height	6' 3"
Weight	204 lb
Debut	2017-04-25

xwOBA Δ	+0.031
wOBA Δ	+0.031

Hitter Projections 20260.314 xwOBA \| 26 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, K, R
2026-04-17 vs KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, R
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB
2026-04-13 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-5
2026-04-12 @ TB0 HR \| 1 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI

Cody Bellinger

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail