Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	46	4	4	0	0	.098	.196	.098	.294
2025	294	30	57	11	3	.217	.299	.388	.687
2026	366	53	73	19	3	.219	.284	.446	.730
3 Seasons	706	87	134	30	6	.210	.285	.400	.685

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01

85

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

72

Defense3 metrics

52

Speed2 metrics

67

Plate skills10 metrics

46

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%7.6%

84

Exit velocity91.8

92

Hard-hit%49.1%

92

xBA0.350

81

xSLG0.688

94

xwOBA0.319

68

BB%7.6%

39

Bat speed73.9

93

K%32.1%

9

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Strength90.4 · 3B

76

Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B

47

Range Runs-1.9 · 3B

33

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs1.2 · 3B

72

Sprint Speed27.9 · 3B

63

SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-01

Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.7% · rebadged research

52

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research

53

Correct Decisions65.1% · rebadged research

40

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101

53

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.252 · borderline

98

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · insufficient sample

15

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302 · validated thin sample

10

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · insufficient sample

80

Resists FastballwOBA 0.346 · validated

34

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367 · validated

25

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Coby Mayo's tools (98) outpace production (78) by 20 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-17.5° Current 38° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

157 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.4σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.330

xwOBA (deserved)0.319

Mayo’s wOBA sits at 0.330, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.319 — a gap of 0.011, -0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 380 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Montgomery, Colson CWS · L	0.75	Chase rateSweet-spot rate	Player · Projection
Goodman, Hunter COL · R	0.71	Bat speedSwing length	Player · Projection
Contreras, Willson BOS · R	0.70	Whiff rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Stowers, Kyle MIA · L	0.65	Chase rateStrikeout rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	3	2026-08-17	Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding	12	2026-08-30	3 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.678

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.290 xwOBA \| 11 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 K
2026-04-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| R
2026-04-17 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, 2 K
2026-04-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, R
2026-04-12 vs SF0 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI

Age	24
Height	6' 5"
Weight	225 lb
Debut	2024-08-02

xwOBA Δ	--
wOBA Δ	--

Hitter Projections 20260.290 xwOBA \| 11 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 K
2026-04-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| R
2026-04-17 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, 2 K
2026-04-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, R
2026-04-12 vs SF0 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI

Coby Mayo

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail