Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Goodman, Hunter
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.298 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.303 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.276
0.289
0.303
0.318
0.331
wOBA
0.364
0.383
0.404
0.425
0.444
ISO
0.201
0.218
0.237
0.256
0.273
K%
25.4%
26.9%
28.7%
30.4%
31.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.9%
28
Barrel%8.1%
83
Bat speed73.7
93
Exit velocity91.1
85
Hard-hit%47.6%
83
K%32.7%
5
-34 vs proj
xBA0.348
72
xSLG0.653
85
xwOBA0.298
39
-21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.4 · C
66
Catcher Throwing-0.4 · C
22
Framing Runs0.2 · C
50
Pop Time2.0 · C
40
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.1 · C
1
Sprint Speed27.4 · C
53
SB Success Rate33.3% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 53.1% · rebadged research
7
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5% · rebadged research
27
Correct Decisions59.7% · rebadged research
8
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
8
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.308 · borderline
12
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
61
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.285 · validated thin sample
27
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
27
Resists FastballwOBA 0.319 · validated
86
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.396 · validated
3
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
140 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.083 |
| Sample | 248 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 523 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 27 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.321 | 0.273 to 0.354 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.207 | 0.172 to 0.305 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 7.8% | 5.6% to 10.1% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 46.3% | 39.6% to 51.3% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 23.6% | 19.1% to 30.0% | +/- 5.4% |
| BB% | 6.2% | 3.8% to 8.9% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.299 | 0.250 to 0.356 | +/- 0.053 |
vs LHP
252 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.257 |
| K% | 20.0% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 7.8% |
vs RHP
663 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.239 |
| K% | 20.4% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 6.7% |