Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 34 |
| Height | 6' 0" |
| Weight | 240 lb |
| Debut | 2016-06-17 |
Player profile / Boston Red Sox
Willson Contreras
1B · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 240 lb · Age 34
Club Boston Red Sox
Position 1B
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 358 | 48 | 79 | 15 | 4 | .262 | .380 | .468 | .848 |
| 2025 | 563 | 70 | 126 | 20 | 5 | .257 | .344 | .447 | .791 |
| 2026 | 368 | 47 | 90 | 21 | 2 | .285 | .378 | .547 | .925 |
| 11 Seasons | 4643 | 573 | 1044 | 193 | 39 | .260 | .354 | .466 | .820 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
90
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.356 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.390 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.378 |
| Observed weight | 63% |
xwOBA
0.353
0.365
0.378
0.391
0.403
wOBA
0.392
0.407
0.424
0.441
0.457
ISO
0.192
0.206
0.222
0.238
0.252
K%
21.7%
22.9%
24.2%
25.5%
26.7%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
89
Exit velocity90.4
80
Hard-hit%47.0%
83
xBA0.386
95
xSLG0.740
96
xwOBA0.390
98
BB%9.4%
61
Bat speed74.4
96
K%24.4%
40
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
28
Range Runs-0.4 · 1B
43
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · 1B
8
Sprint Speed27.3 · 1B
48
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.3% · rebadged research
43
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0% · rebadged research
61
Correct Decisions65.5% · rebadged research
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.313 · borderline
10
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
75
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302 · validated thin sample
11
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
60
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
33
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.428 · validated
1
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
171 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.031 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.065 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Contreras’s wOBA sits at 0.424, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.390 — a gap of 0.034, -1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 381 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canzone, Dominic SEA · L | 0.73 | Chase rateFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Caglianone, Jac KC · L | 0.73 | Whiff ratexwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Harper, Bryce PHI · L | 0.72 | Sprint speedAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Goodman, Hunter COL · R | 0.71 | Sprint speedSweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 4 | 2026-06-27 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.359 xwOBA | 20 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 3-4 | 3B, R |
| 2026-04-20 vs DET0 HR | 0 RBI / 13 Ch | 0 E | 1-5 | K |
| 2026-04-17 vs DET0 HR | 0 RBI / 14 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | HBP, K |
| 2026-04-14 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | HBP, K |
| 2026-04-13 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | 2 K, R |