Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 22 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 200 lb |
| Debut | 2024-04-10 |
Player profile / Baltimore Orioles
Jackson Holliday
2B · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 200 lb · Age 22
Club Baltimore Orioles
Position 2B
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 208 | 28 | 36 | 5 | 4 | .189 | .255 | .311 | .566 |
| 2025 | 649 | 70 | 142 | 17 | 17 | .242 | .314 | .375 | .689 |
| 2026 | 147 | 17 | 26 | 5 | 4 | .211 | .327 | .374 | .701 |
| 3 Seasons | 1004 | 115 | 204 | 27 | 25 | .227 | .304 | .362 | .666 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
58
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.328 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.326 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.327 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.291
0.308
0.327
0.346
0.363
wOBA
0.265
0.289
0.315
0.341
0.364
ISO
0.128
0.147
0.168
0.189
0.209
K%
20.2%
21.9%
23.7%
25.5%
27.2%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
67
Exit velocity87.4
41
Hard-hit%37.6%
44
-29 vs proj
xBA0.331
60
xSLG0.559
66
xwOBA0.326
67
BB%14.5%
96
+44 vs proj
Bat speed67.9
27
K%26.2%
30
-29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.1 · 2B
15
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 2B
28
Range Runs-1.4 · 2B
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts2.0 · 2B
33
Sprint Speed28.4 · 2B
79
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.4% · rebadged research
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.3% · rebadged research
82
Correct Decisions67.7% · rebadged research
65
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
57
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
43
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
73
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.345 · insufficient sample
20
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
55
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
32 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.002 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Holliday’s wOBA sits at 0.315, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.326 — a gap of 0.011, 0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 145 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 1 | 2026-07-08 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.317 xwOBA | 15 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ TB0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | 2 K |