Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Ewing, A.j.
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team NYM
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 22
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
62
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.273 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.314 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.300 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.263
0.280
0.300
0.319
0.337
wOBA
0.281
0.295
0.310
0.326
0.340
ISO
0.085
0.100
0.117
0.134
0.149
K%
20.2%
22.8%
25.6%
28.4%
31.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
44
Exit velocity88.2
53
Hard-hit%41.5%
64
+28 vs proj
xBA0.357
86
xSLG0.553
66
xwOBA0.314
60
+20 vs proj
BB%9.2%
58
Bat speed67.5
25
K%26.5%
30
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.2 · CF
77
Arm Strength96.5 · CF
73
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
24
Range Runs5.3 · CF
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.2 · CF
84
Bolts41.0 · CF
91
SB Success Rate83.3% · CF
59
Sprint Speed29.5 · CF
95
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.7% · rebadged research
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.9% · rebadged research
53
Correct Decisions70.1% · rebadged research
86
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.263 · borderline
92
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
50
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.248 · validated thin sample
97
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
24
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320 · validated
84
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364 · validated
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
130 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.015 |
| Sample | 404 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 200 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.296 | 0.150 to 0.327 | +/- 0.088 |
| ISO | 0.140 | 0.047 to 0.212 | +/- 0.083 |
| Barrel% | 4.1% | 0.2% to 6.2% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.7% | 14.0% to 42.3% | +/- 14.1% |
| K% | 26.8% | 8.8% to 37.5% | +/- 14.4% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 1.0% to 9.9% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.182 to 0.352 | +/- 0.085 |
vs LHP
0 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.4% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.4% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |