Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / WSH · 2026
Young, Jacob
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team WSH
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.293 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.317 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.305 |
| Observed weight | 50% |
xwOBA
0.279
0.292
0.305
0.319
0.331
wOBA
0.285
0.305
0.326
0.348
0.367
ISO
0.091
0.106
0.124
0.141
0.157
K%
15.2%
16.5%
17.9%
19.4%
20.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.5%
23
Barrel%4.1%
37
+26 vs proj
Bat speed66.7
19
Exit velocity88.0
44
Hard-hit%36.6%
36
+20 vs proj
K%16.6%
81
xBA0.323
49
xSLG0.487
42
xwOBA0.317
57
+18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.5 · CF
32
Arm Strength94.2 · CF
69
Outs Above Avg9.0 · CF
100
Range Runs8.3 · CF
99
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · CF
74
Bolts11.0 · CF
74
Sprint Speed29.3 · CF
95
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.0% · rebadged research
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.9% · rebadged research
7
Correct Decisions65.3% · rebadged research
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
35
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.252 · borderline
98
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
26
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289 · validated thin sample
20
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.348 · insufficient sample
17
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
46
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
72
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
160 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.028 |
| Sample | 217 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 447 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.298 | 0.268 to 0.331 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.086 | 0.044 to 0.161 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 1.9% | 0.6% to 3.8% | +/- 1.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.0% | 27.9% to 40.3% | +/- 6.2% |
| K% | 18.4% | 15.2% to 24.0% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 6.8% | 5.3% to 9.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.264 to 0.351 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
299 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.252 |
| K% | 14.0% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |
vs RHP
751 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.231 |
| K% | 14.5% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 1.1% |