Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026

Rojas, Miguel

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.294 xwOBA
Range
0.265 to 0.331
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
43
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
44
Defense4 metrics
50
Speed1 metrics
18
Plate skills11 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
xwOBA preseason0.298
xwOBA current pace0.311
xwOBA rolling p500.305
Observed weight56%
xwOBA
0.281 0.292 0.305 0.318 0.330
wOBA
0.323 0.340 0.360 0.379 0.396
ISO
0.108 0.122 0.137 0.152 0.166
K%
9.7% 10.9% 12.3% 13.7% 14.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
36 +25 vs proj
Exit velocity86.6
35
Hard-hit%37.0%
44 +31 vs proj
xBA0.319
52
xSLG0.441
29
xwOBA0.311
60 +20 vs proj
BB%6.5%
27
Bat speed66.2
13
K%10.8%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 2B
30
Arm Strength85.9 · 2B
41
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
47
Range Runs2.8 · 2B
80
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.1 · 2B
18
SB Success Rate50.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-10-15
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.0% · rebadged research
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.2% · rebadged research
23
Correct Decisions63.0% · rebadged research
21
Mithrandir Stuff+78
5
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline
60
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample
17
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268 · validated thin sample
83
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.352 · insufficient sample
10
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
65
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.329 · validated
93
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
22
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Rojas, Miguel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.301 0.311 2026-10-04: 0.3092026-10-05: 0.3122026-10-06: 0.3122026-10-07: 0.3102026-10-08: 0.3102026-10-09: 0.3102026-10-10: 0.3102026-10-11: 0.3102026-10-12: 0.3102026-10-13: 0.3092026-10-14: 0.3092026-10-15: 0.311 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Miguel Rojas's tools (55) outpace production (44) by 11 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Power Efficiency Gap; Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

166 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Rojas, Miguel · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsPull 13%Center field third: 76% of plotted batted ballsCenter 76%Right field third: 11% of plotted batted ballsOppo 11% LF 330 CF 400 RF 330 2026-03-15 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 4.02026-03-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.2 / LA -31.02026-03-15 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA -1.02026-03-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.2 / LA -20.02026-03-18 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 63.7 / LA -50.02026-03-18 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.9 / LA -6.02026-03-18 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 40.02026-03-20 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 83.8 / LA 12.02026-03-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.4 / LA -11.02026-03-20 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 0.02026-03-23 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 27.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -5.02026-03-23 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.6 / LA -10.02026-03-24 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.5 / LA -22.02026-03-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 91.6 / LA 71.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.0 / LA -4.02026-03-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 94.0 / LA 16.02026-03-26 · field out · SL · popup · EV 77.5 / LA 83.02026-03-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.7 / LA 13.02026-03-28 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA -2.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.1 / LA 74.02026-03-30 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.3 / LA 5.02026-03-30 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 0.02026-03-31 · field out · ST · popup · EV 71.9 / LA 74.02026-04-04 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 30.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 3.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 50.8 / LA -76.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.4 / LA -2.02026-04-05 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 9.02026-04-05 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 74.4 / LA 16.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 25.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.5 / LA -18.02026-04-08 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 86.1 / LA 27.02026-04-10 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.5 / LA -3.02026-04-10 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.5 / LA 17.02026-04-13 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 94.7 / LA 14.02026-04-13 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 96.7 / LA 14.02026-04-13 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 89.4 / LA 26.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA -7.02026-04-18 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 65.8 / LA -3.02026-04-18 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 74.4 / LA 50.02026-04-20 · sac bunt · CH · ground_ball · EV 31.1 / LA -14.02026-04-20 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA -3.02026-04-20 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 29.02026-04-20 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 104.1 / LA 9.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.8 / LA -21.02026-04-22 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 89.1 / LA 39.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 89.8 / LA -1.02026-04-22 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 10.02026-04-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.4 / LA 19.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.6 / LA 32.02026-04-26 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 48.1 / LA -78.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 34.3 / LA 82.02026-04-29 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.1 / LA 1.02026-05-01 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 85.6 / LA 30.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 108.2 / LA 7.02026-05-01 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 61.0 / LA -14.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA -8.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA 1.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.0 / LA 14.02026-05-05 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA -3.02026-05-05 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 1.02026-05-05 · field out · ST · popup · EV 75.5 / LA 75.02026-05-06 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 4.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.7 / LA 15.02026-05-08 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.1 / LA 7.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 66.6 / LA -10.02026-05-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -24.02026-05-11 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 40.7 / LA -21.02026-05-13 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -8.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 61.4 / LA 4.02026-05-13 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 94.7 / LA 12.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 57.02026-05-14 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 68.1 / LA 23.02026-05-14 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 86.7 / LA 1.02026-05-14 · fielders choice out · SI · ground_ball · EV 38.8 / LA -37.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 61.6 / LA 7.02026-05-17 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.7 / LA 8.02026-05-17 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 5.02026-05-17 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 83.4 / LA 34.02026-05-22 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 72.8 / LA 53.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 30.02026-05-23 · sac bunt · FC · ground_ball · EV 41.4 / LA -70.02026-05-23 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA -1.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 31.02026-05-23 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 82.0 / LA 34.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 76.9 / LA 29.02026-05-24 · field out · FC · popup · EV 62.9 / LA 77.02026-05-26 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 13.02026-05-26 · double · FC · ground_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 2.02026-05-26 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA 8.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 80.1 / LA 0.02026-06-01 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 78.0 / LA 2.02026-06-04 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 15.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.5 / LA 66.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 23.02026-06-07 · field out · SL · popup · EV 55.7 / LA 69.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA -3.02026-06-15 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 25.02026-06-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 28.02026-06-20 · field out · CH · popup · EV 89.7 / LA 68.02026-06-20 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 88.5 / LA 28.02026-06-22 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA -2.02026-06-26 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.8 / LA -37.02026-06-30 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.3 / LA -18.02026-06-30 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 47.02026-06-30 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 23.02026-06-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 79.2 / LA -16.02026-07-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -2.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.7 / LA 54.02026-07-01 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 102.1 / LA 22.02026-07-01 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 68.0 / LA 32.02026-07-31 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.8 / LA -6.02026-07-31 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 32.02026-07-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.7 / LA -56.02026-07-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.2 / LA 24.02026-08-05 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 98.4 / LA 14.02026-08-05 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 76.8 / LA 13.02026-08-07 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 80.4 / LA 21.02026-08-13 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA -17.02026-08-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 80.6 / LA -5.02026-08-16 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.4 / LA 38.02026-08-19 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 74.0 / LA 26.02026-08-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.5 / LA 41.02026-08-19 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 1.02026-08-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 67.2 / LA 58.02026-08-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 90.7 / LA 25.02026-08-27 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 69.1 / LA 27.02026-08-27 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 67.3 / LA -23.02026-08-29 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 52.02026-08-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -20.02026-08-30 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 41.02026-08-30 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 16.02026-09-02 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 59.1 / LA -52.02026-09-02 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 78.1 / LA 57.02026-09-03 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 73.1 / LA 11.02026-09-03 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.1 / LA 73.02026-09-04 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 93.7 / LA 18.02026-09-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.6 / LA -7.02026-09-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 83.0 / LA 53.02026-09-07 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 83.3 / LA -35.02026-09-07 · field error · FC · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA -57.02026-09-08 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 98.9 / LA 23.02026-09-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 58.02026-09-09 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 0.02026-09-11 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 65.9 / LA 9.02026-09-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 79.4 / LA 32.02026-09-13 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 73.8 / LA 14.02026-09-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA 0.02026-09-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.7 / LA -28.02026-09-17 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 76.2 / LA 17.02026-09-17 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.9 / LA 29.02026-09-17 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 74.2 / LA 39.02026-09-18 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA -10.02026-09-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.8 / LA 55.02026-09-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.9 / LA -24.02026-09-20 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.6 / LA 3.02026-09-23 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 84.2 / LA 24.02026-09-26 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 100.3 / LA 19.02026-09-26 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 42.02026-09-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 6.02026-09-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA -14.02026-10-04 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 78.4 / LA 20.02026-10-06 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 91.4 / LA 20.02026-10-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA -3.02026-10-14 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.6 / LA -2.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Rojas, Miguel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 32%32%Whiff: 15%15%Zone contact: 92%92%Contact: 85%85%Hard hit: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-37 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.017
wOBA Δ+0.066
Sample278 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances408----
Home Runs9----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2940.265 to 0.331+/- 0.033
ISO0.0980.077 to 0.188+/- 0.056
Barrel%1.9%1.3% to 4.3%+/- 1.5%
Hard-Hit%28.8%24.0% to 36.0%+/- 6.0%
K%13.8%10.6% to 20.6%+/- 5.0%
BB%6.7%5.3% to 10.1%+/- 2.4%
BABIP0.2810.243 to 0.331+/- 0.044
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1220 career PA

xwOBA0.247
K%8.7%
BB%6.4%
Barrel2.5%
vs RHP

2936 career PA

xwOBA0.233
K%10.3%
BB%5.3%
Barrel2.0%