Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-36 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Altuve, Jose
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 36
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
21
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.310 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.272 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.284 |
| Observed weight | 70% |
xwOBA
0.263
0.273
0.284
0.295
0.304
wOBA
0.299
0.312
0.326
0.340
0.352
ISO
0.130
0.141
0.154
0.167
0.179
K%
18.1%
19.0%
20.1%
21.2%
22.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.2%
26
-19 vs proj
Exit velocity84.9
18
Hard-hit%32.9%
26
xBA0.285
17
xSLG0.419
20
xwOBA0.272
21
-34 vs proj
BB%7.7%
40
Bat speed65.9
12
K%21.1%
59
-26 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength76.9 · 2B
1
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 2B
5
Range Runs-3.5 · 2B
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.5 · 2B
19
Bolts15.0 · 2B
70
SB Success Rate66.7% · 2B
20
Sprint Speed27.6 · 2B
53
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.3% · rebadged research
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.9% · rebadged research
54
Correct Decisions62.4% · rebadged research
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
67
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · insufficient sample
21
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
41
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
42
Resists FastballwOBA 0.365 · validated
13
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345 · validated
77
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
233 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.036 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.018 |
| Sample | 507 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 607 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 22 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.308 | 0.291 to 0.360 | +/- 0.035 |
| ISO | 0.171 | 0.111 to 0.245 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 3.2% to 6.5% | +/- 1.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.1% | 28.6% to 39.1% | +/- 5.2% |
| K% | 16.1% | 14.6% to 22.9% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 5.8% to 11.1% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.305 | 0.288 to 0.357 | +/- 0.035 |
vs LHP
1843 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 4.9% |
vs RHP
5212 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 15.0% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |