Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-38 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / KC · 2026
Marte, Starling
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team KC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 38
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.318 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.281 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 27% |
xwOBA
0.275
0.291
0.308
0.325
0.341
wOBA
0.327
0.360
0.397
0.433
0.466
ISO
0.072
0.093
0.115
0.138
0.159
K%
20.6%
22.4%
24.4%
26.5%
28.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.4%
34
+16 vs proj
Barrel%4.9%
48
Bat speed70.1
57
Exit velocity91.2
86
Hard-hit%36.0%
32
K%27.2%
25
-15 vs proj
xBA0.343
67
xSLG0.469
36
xwOBA0.281
24
-32 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Arm Runs1.0 · RF
Limited
Range Runs0.2 · RF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.0 · RF
6
SB Success Rate0.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.4% · rebadged research
48
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.1% · rebadged research
16
Correct Decisions65.9% · rebadged research
47
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
68
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
35
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277 · validated thin sample
45
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
65
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336 · validated
57
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated
20
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
49 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.034 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.082 |
| Sample | 81 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 418 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.315 | 0.278 to 0.355 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.124 | 0.072 to 0.188 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 2.8% to 6.7% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.2% | 32.3% to 45.3% | +/- 6.5% |
| K% | 23.3% | 18.6% to 28.0% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 4.6% to 9.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.317 | 0.276 to 0.369 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
1395 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 17.0% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |
vs RHP
3835 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.251 |
| K% | 17.6% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |