Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-36 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / KC · 2026
Perez, Salvador
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team KC
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 36
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.325 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.295 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.309 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.284
0.296
0.309
0.322
0.334
wOBA
0.261
0.279
0.299
0.318
0.336
ISO
0.147
0.162
0.179
0.196
0.211
K%
18.3%
19.6%
21.0%
22.5%
23.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%4.5%
10
Barrel%7.3%
78
Bat speed70.0
56
Exit velocity89.0
55
Hard-hit%41.1%
54
K%19.5%
64
+20 vs proj
xBA0.289
22
xSLG0.509
49
xwOBA0.295
36
-35 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.6 · C
78
Catcher Throwing0.4 · C
50
Framing Runs-3.6 · C
7
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · C
15
Pop Time2.0 · C
40
Range Runs-1.7 · C
25
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.1 · DH
1
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.4% · rebadged research
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.3% · rebadged research
81
Correct Decisions62.4% · rebadged research
16
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
17
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.249 · borderline
98
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
40
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268 · validated thin sample
75
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.306 · insufficient sample
97
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331 · validated
67
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.383 · validated
8
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
173 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.039 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.035 |
| Sample | 246 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 603 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 25 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.334 | 0.308 to 0.372 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.192 | 0.133 to 0.251 | +/- 0.059 |
| Barrel% | 7.6% | 5.6% to 10.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.2% | 39.5% to 51.1% | +/- 5.8% |
| K% | 22.9% | 18.0% to 27.1% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 5.3% | 3.7% to 8.1% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.233 to 0.327 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
1467 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.270 |
| K% | 18.7% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 6.3% |
vs RHP
4048 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.292 |
| K% | 18.9% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 7.3% |