Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-36 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Higashioka, Kyle
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team TEX
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 36
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.298 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.276 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.291 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
xwOBA
0.254
0.271
0.291
0.310
0.327
wOBA
0.304
0.331
0.362
0.392
0.420
ISO
0.119
0.142
0.168
0.195
0.218
K%
21.8%
23.8%
25.9%
28.1%
30.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.0%
39
+20 vs proj
Barrel%6.2%
65
Bat speed68.7
37
Exit velocity87.9
42
Hard-hit%41.4%
56
+16 vs proj
K%29.2%
17
-17 vs proj
xBA0.315
40
xSLG0.488
43
xwOBA0.276
20
-16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.6 · C
21
Catcher Throwing-0.2 · C
36
Framing Runs-0.7 · C
41
Pop Time2.0 · C
8
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.2 · C
2
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.6% · rebadged research
50
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0% · rebadged research
24
Correct Decisions63.5% · rebadged research
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · borderline
96
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
80
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
57
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.358 · insufficient sample
9
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332 · validated
65
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.382 · validated
8
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
38
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
68 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.067 |
| Sample | 113 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 400 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 17 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.295 | 0.249 to 0.346 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.167 | 0.120 to 0.264 | +/- 0.072 |
| Barrel% | 5.6% | 3.4% to 8.0% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.5% | 34.4% to 47.9% | +/- 6.7% |
| K% | 25.3% | 20.2% to 31.3% | +/- 5.5% |
| BB% | 5.9% | 4.0% to 9.5% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.204 to 0.340 | +/- 0.068 |
vs LHP
501 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.239 |
| K% | 19.2% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 5.9% |
vs RHP
1136 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.213 |
| K% | 19.8% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 4.4% |